In general, nations led by incompetent, unwise and unimaginative leaders falter, disintegrate and fall prey to corruption, tribalism, extremism, terrorism, internal conflicts, full-blown civil wars, unnecessary unwinnable wars, and foreign control or occupation. Eventually, these nations lose national sovereignty.
Bad leadership was mainly responsible for the collapse and disintegration of Somalia in 1991 and has been the main cause for its unique place in the world as the only failed state on earth for the past quarter of a century. It’s also the primary cause for corruption, poverty, tribalism and the travails of the Somali nation from south to north.
After Jaale Siyad’s humiliating downfall, Mogadishu and Hargeisa (Somaliland) took different paths – a tortuous torturous cliff for the former and a bumpy quasi-safe road for the latter. The different routes they had taken had nothing to do with the nature of the people living there as some narrow-minded people claim. The people in Mogadishu are as good and noble as the people in Hargeisa. In fact, prior to the start of the Somali civil war, despite being the largest and the most populous city in Somalia, Mogadishu was the most peaceful city and its mosaic population was the most tolerant of the whole Somali nation. The complexity of the elements involved in the conflicts in Mogadishu just made the situation there more turbulent, more dangerous and more protracted. President Egal’s comparatively high-calibre and accommodating leadership also reduced the level of tribal tensions and hostilities in the north and thereby contributed to the relative stability in Somaliland.
In Mogadishu, days after Jaale Siyad had fled the capital, a power struggle between President Ali Mahdi and General Aidid, the chairman of the victorious USC, broke out. In spite of great and commendable efforts of some prominent citizens in Mogadishu, the power struggle continued and turned into a full-blown armed conflict with a no clear winner. An ensuing civil war, which was later complicated and aggravated by other players including war lords, religious extremists, and foreign influences and interventions that constantly sought to undermine one another brought chaos and devastation to Mogadishu.
The crisis continues to this date but is asymptotically approaching a manageable level. Thanks to AMISOM and the assistance of the international community, Mogadishu is finally emerging from chaos and violence; its residents are feeling safe and secure for the first time in a quarter of a century; people are returning in droves; construction is booming; and what just seemed a dream only two years ago has suddenly become a reality.
The situation was however different in Somaliland after the violent end of Siyad’s rule. The power vacuum left by the deposed regime was immediately filled by SNM. And with the exception of early atrocities committed by SNM fighters in Awdal and Sanag and a brief civil war that affected Berbera, Burao and Hargeisa in 1990s, Somaliland has been relatively peaceful. But unfortunately, the situation has been in reverse lately. The former beacon of hope and oasis of stability is knocked off balance and direction by armed conflicts in the east; new insurgencies in the west; an absence of rule of law; a return of humongous nation-killer tribalism to government practice; a rampant corruption that affects all levels of government; a paralyzing political deadlock; recurring mass demonstrations across the country; and a deteriorating standard of living.
The political turmoil, social woes and the disturbing armed conflicts are expected to worsen in the months ahead, in particular, after the president’s term expires on 26th of June. There are also fears that the next presidential election, which will probably take place in 2016, may exacerbate the situation and polarize the country further and even induce a full-blown civil war that has the potential to threaten the continued existence of Somaliland.
A respected Somaliland politician likened the government’s reluctance to contain the country’s compounding crisis to an old Roman adage – the foolish ostrich just hides its head and assumes to be safe from danger when faced with attack by predators.
But what are the root causes of Somaliland’s problems and why its government is hesitant to acknowledge and contain the compounding crisis? Many different theories explain the root causes of the problems the country is facing and the government’s inability to tackle them. However, the most widely accepted theory attributes the deteriorating situation in the country to President Silanyo’s health. This theory is being supported by many respected people including former Silanyo cabinet ministers, some members of the two houses of parliament, many elements among the opposition parties and some of the distinguished members of “Madasha” – the highly regarded political association that advocates democracy, rule of law, peaceful resistance against tyranny, and timely elections that are transparent, fair and free. This non conspiracy and probably credible theory says the president is ill and incapacitated by advanced age, and the real power is lying with the president’s family and a small group of people from the president’s own clan that are working in collusion with well known opportunist yes-men and corrupt business people who are adamant that the president stays in power beyond his term by any means, legal or illegal.
The individuals surrounding the president and having control of the country are considered very corrupt and dangerous who don’t hesitate to compromise on the national interest of the country or even on its existence in order to remain in power. The illegal transfer of Hargeisa and Berbera power stations to select individuals is a good case that shows that the people who are running the country are indifferent to the suffering of the poor residents living in these two important cities.
Gandhi library is another public property that has been illegally transferred to individuals who are related to the president. The news of this illegal transaction shocked everybody in Hargeisa. Gandhi library, because of its apposite location and easy access to the public, has been a perfect place for booklovers and students in Hargeisa. And as far as I know, there is only one library in Hargeisa besides Gandhi library, which is accessible to the people of that populous city. The other library is run by the ILO office in Hargeisa. It seems that nothing is off the table.
The Minister of Public Works has an explanation to do if he believes that he is accountable to the public.
Selling government properties is an extremely worrying development that is impoverishing the state at the expense of a few unpatriotic and selfish individuals. The illegal sale of government properties started under the previous regime and has been gathering momentum since Silanyo came to power.
In Awdal, an unprecedented situation is unfolding. A prominent sultan based in Borama and a former mayor of the same city recently defected and called for Awdal secession from Somaliland. According to Awdal media, they set up a base camp in a place just ten kilometres away from that city and started to recruit an armed militia to dislodge Awdal from Somaliland. The news has sent waves of joy to pro-Somalia camp – a strong majority in Awdal region – and shudders through the pro-Somaliland block. Suddenly, the invincibility of Somaliland and its level of influence in the region were challenged and are exposed to the dismay of Awdal politicians, self-appointed opportunist sultans, timid professionals and recent turncoats. Furthermore, the notion of Somaliland being an untouchable entity in the region evaporated instantly.
There is even a joke about this matter circulating among Awdal Diaspora in Canada that says, “Every time the leaders of the militia make a statement, the Awdal politicians in Hargeisa shiver; the timid Awdal professionals switch off their mobile phones; and the self-appointed opportunist sultans in Borama smell blood.”
A concerned Somaliland fan summed up the Awdal situation this way, “Even if a small percentage of the information reported in Awdal websites about this issue is true, it shows a radical realignment of the existing policies of the countries in the region.”
This story has attracted a lot of attention and created a lot of rumours in recent months for various reasons. The rumours it had created gave hope and inspiration to many and fear and disappointments to others. In a situation like this, a responsible government would clear the air because the public has the right to know the truth. The Somaliland government therefore owes the public an explanation about what’s happening in Awdal. At least it would be helpful if the Ministers of Interior and Defence, who are frequently seen talking on issues that are not in the domain of their ministerial responsibilities, make a statement on this subject and answer the following two questions:
(1) Where are the bases of Mayor Bile and Sultan Wabar located?
(2) Why is the Somaliland government powerless to dismantle these bases and apprehend the militias?
To conclude this article, I hope that the Somali people wherever they are would come together and find a common ground for their differences; tear down the evil walls of tribalism; close the gates of corruption; denounce violent religious extremism and bogus nationalism; and stop electing bad leaders and manufacturing enemies.
Abdulkarim Hassan (Matan) Ali